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Morning Bias: How the First Candle Sets the Day's Sentiment

Learn how the first candle of a trading session reflects market sentiment and use it to determine the day's likely direction.

Mark · Trader & Founder, Social Forex

Morning Bias: How the First Candle Sets the Day's Sentiment

What is Morning Bias?

Morning Bias is a simple way to read the market by looking at the first candle after a session opens, often the 1-hour or 15-minute candle. This first candle shows who is in control: buyers or sellers. If the first candle is a large green candle, buyers are strong; if it is a large red candle, sellers are in charge.

How to Identify Morning Bias

You need to look at three main factors:

  • Candle body color: a green candle shows the close is higher than the open, meaning buyers control. A red candle means sellers control.
  • Body size: a large body compared with nearby candles shows strong momentum. A small body shows hesitation.
  • Wicks: a long lower wick can signal potential buying pressure; a long upper wick signals selling pressure.

    • A first candle with a large body and little or no wick is called a Marubozu candle. A green Marubozu is very bullish. A red Marubozu is very bearish.

    Open = HighNo upper wickClose = LowNo lower wickBuyers controlled entire session — open = high, close = low of candle
    Open = HighNo upper wickClose = LowNo lower wickSellers controlled entire session — open = high, close = low of candle

    On the other hand, if the first candle has a very small body and long wicks on both sides, it is a Doji candle. A Doji shows that the market is undecided, so you should wait for more signals.

    Open ≈ CloseUpper wickLower wickTiny body = buyers and sellers in perfect balance → indecision

    How to Trade Morning Bias

  • If the first candle is a large green candle: focus on buying opportunities. You can wait for a pullback to a nearby support zone and then place a Buy order.
  • If the first candle is a large red candle: focus on selling opportunities. You can wait for a retracement to a resistance zone and then place a Sell order.
  • If the first candle is a Doji or very small: do not trade immediately. Wait for the second or third candle to confirm the direction.
  • Always place your Stop Loss above or below the first candle, because it acts as an important price level.

    • Real Example

    At 7:00 AM Vietnam time, the first candle of the London session opens and rises sharply, with a green body that covers the previous hour's entire candle. You can see that buyers are dominating. The price then pulls back slightly and continues upward, giving a good buying opportunity. If you wait for a second green candle to confirm, you can place a Buy order with a Stop Loss below the low of the first candle.

    Common Mistakes

  • Trading immediately when the first candle closes without waiting for confirmation.
  • Confusing the true first candle with the Asian session candle when the London session opens.
  • Placing Stop Loss too tight, getting stopped out before the price moves in the intended direction.
  • Ignoring market context: if price is at a strong resistance zone, a green first candle may simply be a false bullish signal.

    • Summary

    The first candle of the day is a quick signal about market sentiment. Combine it with other tools such as support/resistance zones and proper risk management to increase your chances of success.

    Content is for reference only, not investment advice. Forex trading carries high risk.

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