What is happening right now

As of July 2, 2026, EURUSD is trading at 1.13770, showing a slight 0.01% decline in the early European session. The pair remains under heavy bearish pressure across all timeframes examined, from the 15-minute (M15) to the daily (D1). Recent US economic reports, notably the sticky PCE inflation data released last week, have reinforced the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, fueling demand for the US dollar. According to a FOREX.com update, dollar strength continues to weigh on the euro, and XTB.com noted that EURUSD has already tested levels below 1.135. The daily chart shows a shooting-star-like rejection candle, indicating strong selling pressure near recent resistance.

Why this matters for traders

The persistent bearish trend means that intraday rallies are being aggressively sold. With the daily ADX (Average Directional Index) reading at 37.4—well above the 25 threshold—the downtrend is considered strong, making trend-following approaches more relevant than counter-trend strategies. The exponential moving averages (EMAs) on all timeframes are stacked in bearish order, confirming that momentum remains with sellers. For position traders, the break below the psychological 1.1400 level and the move toward 1.1350 opens the door to lower targets, while any bullish reversal would require clear and sustained breaks above key moving averages.

Technical analysis breakdown

Daily chart (D1)

  • Close: 1.13764 (-0.02%)
  • RSI (14): 33.6 – deeply bearish, approaching oversold territory but not quite there.
  • EMAs: EMA20 at 1.14637, EMA50 at 1.15501, EMA200 at 1.15905 – all well above price, signaling strong bearish momentum.
  • ADX: 37.4 – indicates a robust trend.
  • MACD: negative cross, confirming the downtrend.
  • Candles: A shooting-star-like rejection pattern suggests sellers are firmly in control.

4-hour chart (H4)

  • Close: 1.13770
  • RSI (14): 43.1 – still in bearish zone below 50.
  • EMAs: EMA20 at 1.13937, EMA50 at 1.14138 both act as nearby dynamic resistance. EMA200 at 1.15216.
  • ADX: 19.2 – indicates the trend may be weakening slightly but remains bearish overall.
  • MACD: negative cross.

1-hour chart (H1)

  • Close: 1.13770
  • RSI (14): 38.6 – near oversold but not at extreme levels.
  • EMAs: EMA20 at 1.13866, EMA50 at 1.13947, EMA200 at 1.14156. All above current price.
  • ADX: 19.5 – moderate trend strength.
  • MACD: negative cross, though doji candles show short-term indecision.

15-minute chart (M15)

  • Close: 1.13770
  • RSI (14): 44.1 – bearish below 50.
  • EMAs: EMA20 at 1.13787, EMA50 at 1.13826, EMA200 at 1.13949.
  • ADX: 14.3 – weak trend on the very short term.
  • MACD: a recent positive cross may hint at a minor bounce, but the overall backdrop remains negative.
  • Candles: doji patterns reflect indecision; any rally is likely to face stiff resistance at the nearby EMAs.

Key support and resistance levels:

  • Immediate support: 1.1350 (recent low), then 1.1300 (psychological round number).
  • Immediate resistance: 1.1400, then a cluster of EMAs around 1.1394–1.1395 (H4 EMA20 and H1 EMA50).

Practical checklist for today

  1. Watch the daily RSI: A move below 30 could signal an oversold bounce, but if it holds at low levels without divergence, it may suggest increasing bearish momentum.
  2. Monitor the 1.1350 support: A clean breakdown with increased volume could extend the decline toward 1.1300 or even 1.1250.
  3. Keep an eye on the EMAs on H1 and H4: Any intraday rally that fails to reclaim the EMA20–EMA50 band (roughly 1.1387–1.1395) confirms seller dominance.
  4. Check the economic calendar: Upcoming US data, such as the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday's Non-Farm Payrolls, could inject volatility. Verify event times on your broker's calendar.
  5. Correlation check: Monitor the US Dollar Index (DXY) – a break above recent highs adds pressure on EURUSD. Also watch US Treasury yields.
  6. Verify price feeds: Spreads can widen during news events; confirm your broker's quotes and execution conditions before placing trades.

Common mistakes traders make with EURUSD in bearish trends

  • Fighting the trend: Trying to pick a bottom by going long without strong reversal signals, simply because the RSI is low.
  • Ignoring higher timeframes: Focusing on a minor M15 bounce while the H4 and daily charts remain firmly bearish.
  • Not adjusting to ADX readings: When ADX drops below 20 (as on H1 and H4), trend-following signals become less reliable and choppiness increases.
  • Overleveraging: The daily ADX of 37.4 means price can move quickly; trading too large a position can lead to sudden account depletion.
  • Neglecting weekend risk: Holding positions over the weekend without protective stops exposes you to gap risk if major news breaks.

Risk management essentials

  • Stop-loss placement: In a downtrend, consider placing stops above the nearest relevant EMA or recent swing high. For example, a stop above 1.1395 (the H1 EMA50/H4 EMA20 cluster) offers a tight but logical level; a wider stop could be above 1.1416 (H1 EMA200).
  • Position sizing: Never risk more than 1–2% of your account on a single trade. For a 50-pip stop, calculate your lot size accordingly based on your account currency and balance.
  • Capital preservation: If you encounter a string of losses, reduce your position size and reassess market conditions rather than attempting to recover quickly.
  • Trailing stops: As a trade moves in your favor, consider moving your stop to breakeven or trailing it below lower timeframe EMAs to lock in profits.
  • Check costs: Verify swap rates for holding EURUSD overnight on your broker's platform, as they can erode gains in a slow-moving market.

Risk disclaimer

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading forex involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions.