What Is Happening Right Now with EURUSD

As of July 24, 2026, at 17:19 UTC, EURUSD is trading near 1.13702, down -0.07% for the day. The pair remains under heavy selling pressure following the ECB’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, as reported earlier today. Technical indicators across all standard timeframes — M15, H1, H4, and Daily — agree on a bearish structure. On the M15 chart, a shooting-star-like rejection candle formed at 1.13702, with RSI at 37.5 (bearish) and the EMA20 (1.13786), EMA50 (1.13803), and EMA200 (1.13907) all sloping lower and stacked above price — confirming a downtrend. The H1 chart paints a similar picture: RSI at 40.4, price below EMAs (EMA20 at 1.13807, EMA50 at 1.13898, EMA200 at 1.14105). Meanwhile, the Daily chart shows a doji candle near the day’s low, with price at 1.13704, well below the EMA20 (1.14225), EMA50 (1.14872), and EMA200 (1.15653), and RSI at 38.8. The ADX on the Daily stands at 26.4, indicating a strengthening bearish trend, whereas intraday ADX readings are lower (M15: 20.1, H1: 19.7, H4: 14.5), suggesting the trend may lack momentum in very short timeframes. Nevertheless, the overall alignment is bearish.

Why This Matters for Traders

The ECB rate hold was widely expected, but the market reaction has been a break of a bear flag pattern and a move toward key support around 1.1350 — a psychological level and prior swing low. Such coinciding technical and fundamental pressure creates an environment where traders can look for continuation trades or watch for potential support bounces. If 1.1350 breaks, further downside toward 1.1300 or even the 1.1250–1.1280 zone could come into play. Conversely, a bounce from support might trigger a retest of the broken EMAs, but the bearish EMA alignment suggests sellers will likely defend those levels. Understanding these dynamics helps traders avoid getting trapped in false breakouts or early counter-trend entries.

Technical Analysis Breakdown

  • All timeframes bearish: M15, H1, H4, and Daily all show price trading below their respective EMA20, EMA50, and EMA200, forming a textbook bearish EMA stack.
  • RSI readings: All RSI values are below 50 (M15: 37.5, H1: 40.4, H4: 36.3, Daily: 38.8), confirming momentum is with sellers.
  • MACD divergence: On H1 and Daily, the MACD histogram shows a positive cross — often a sign of short-term consolidation or corrective pullbacks — while M15 and H4 have negative crosses. This hints at possible intraday bounces before resuming the larger downtrend.
  • Daily doji: The doji on the daily chart signals indecision, but in the context of a strong bearish trend (Daily ADX at 26.4), it’s more likely a consolidation before the next leg down.
  • Key levels to watch: Immediate support is 1.1350 (psychological/structural). A break below could accelerate toward 1.1300. On the upside, any retracement is likely to find sellers near the H1 EMA20 at 1.13807, H4 EMA20 at 1.13939, and the critical daily EMA20 at 1.14225 — a level that, if breached, could flip the intraday bias.

Technical Bias & Probability

Bias: SELL
Confidence: 68%
Derived from technical signals: four of the six key metrics (RSI, EMA alignment, price below EMAs, Daily ADX trend strength) are in bearish agreement. The mixed MACD (positive crosses on H1/Daily) and the daily doji introduce a note of caution, preventing a higher confidence reading.

  • Entry zone: 1.1380–1.1390
    This zone represents a potential retracement into overhead EMA resistance (H1 EMA20 at 1.13807, H4 EMA20 at 1.13939). Selling into this area rather than chasing the current price offers better odds because it provides a clearer invalidation point and a tighter stop distance, which improves reward-to-risk. Historically, pullbacks to dynamic resistance in downtrends on EURUSD have a higher success rate for short entries.
  • Invalidation level: 1.1425
    A daily close above this level would violate the bearish structure (above daily EMA20 and H1 EMA200), suggesting the thesis is wrong.

This is a technical-analysis-only read — not investment advice, not a guaranteed fill, and not a guarantee of profit. Always apply your own stop-loss and position sizing regardless of this bias.

Practical Checklist for Today’s Session

  • Monitor ECB follow‑up comments and US economic releases (GDP, durable goods) that could inject volatility.
  • Watch if price holds above 1.1350 — a convincing break below targets 1.1300 and possibly 1.1250.
  • If EURUSD retraces into the 1.1380–1.1390 zone, look for bearish reversal patterns (pin bar, bearish engulfing) on the M15 or H1 chart before considering a short.
  • Keep RSI in focus — if it stays below 50 across timeframes, bears are in control; a push above 50 would signal caution.
  • Note the daily EMA20 at 1.14225 — a close above would negate the short-term bearish outlook.

Common Mistakes Traders Make with This Setup

  • Chasing the market after a sharp move without waiting for a retracement, leading to poor risk-to-reward ratios.
  • Over‑trading the news spike without confirmation from technical structure, getting caught in volatile whipsaws.
  • Ignoring the daily doji and assuming an immediate collapse — indecision candles can precede sudden short‑covering rallies.
  • Placing stops too tight below support when ADX is low (e.g., H4 ADX 14.5), only to get stopped out by normal market noise.

Risk Management

Always define your risk before entering a trade. For a short in the 1.1380–1.1390 zone with a stop loss at 1.1425, the risk is approximately 35‑45 pips. Adjust your lot size so that this pip risk equals no more than 1‑2% of your account balance. Aim for a minimum 1:2 reward‑to‑risk ratio, targeting 1.1300 (≈80‑90 pips). Check your broker’s spread and overnight swap rates, especially if holding through the US session. Volatility often rises around US economic releases — consider widening stops or reducing position size during those events.

Risk Disclaimer

This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any trading decisions.